October Job Gain Could Top 45,000
KPMG's forecast points to a rebound from September's weak hiring, a signal worth checking against the official report on November 6.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Employment
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KPMG projects U.S. nonfarm payrolls will rise by 45,000 in October, according to a forecast issued October 30. The projection is set against the official October jobs report due Friday, November 6.
Why it matters
A projected gain of 45,000 would be larger than September's 29,000 increase, a shift that bears on how households judge the strength of the job market. Forecasts like this help readers gauge whether hiring is steadying after the recent downward revisions to July and August.
KPMG's 45,000 October payroll projection compares with September's 29,000 gain, and it assumes 50,000 private-sector jobs offset a 5,000-job public-sector decline. The September report put unemployment at 4.2% and revised July and August payrolls down by a combined 60,000.
The players
KPMG
A global professional services firm whose economic forecasts are followed by businesses and households as an outside read on near-term hiring and wage trends.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The federal agency that publishes the monthly jobs report and unemployment rate, the official data households and lenders use to gauge the labor market.
The details
Nonfarm payrolls count the net change in paid jobs outside farms, and monthly gains of this size are a key input to how the Federal Reserve reads labor-market conditions. The forecast breaks the expected gain into two parts: private employers adding 50,000 positions and government employment shrinking by 5,000. Because the September report also cut earlier months, a strong October figure would partly reflect a rebound from weaker recent readings. Forecasts of this kind are compared against the Bureau of Labor Statistics report once it is released.
Timeline
October 30: KPMG issued its payroll forecast.
Friday, November 6: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the official October jobs report.
Money Landscape
The projected October gain would follow a September report that revised July and August payrolls down by a combined 60,000, placing a sizable rebound in the context of recent weakness. Whether hiring is recovering or simply catching up to earlier revisions is the question the official October data will help answer.
If the official report confirms a rebound, households may read it as a sign that job availability is improving, which can matter for decisions about budgeting for a job search or a major purchase. A weaker-than-projected figure would instead point to a slower hiring environment, a reason to review emergency savings with a qualified financial professional.
The takeaway
A 45,000-job October gain would be a noticeable step up from September's 29,000, but the 60,000 downward revision to earlier months shows how much early readings can change. Mark Friday, November 6 on your calendar and compare the official figure against the projection before drawing conclusions about the job market.
What happens next
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official October jobs report on Friday, November 6, which will show whether the 45,000 projection holds.
Further reading
For context on how hiring and unemployment data are tracked, see the Employment section.
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