Two Poverty Measures Show Opposite 2025 Trends
Households judging midterm poverty claims should check whether a figure uses the official or supplemental measure.
Updated on Nov. 1, 2026 in Employment
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President Donald Trump cited U.S. poverty figures as his closing message to voters before the midterm elections, in a video interview with New York Post columnist Miranda Devine that Fox News previewed. Under the supplemental poverty measure, 13.1% of the U.S. population was in poverty in 2025.
Why it matters
The official U.S. poverty rate for 2025 was the lowest on record, but the supplemental measure, which counts more household resources and costs, shows a rate higher than both the 2021 low of 7.7% and the 2019 pre-pandemic low of 11.7%. Households and policymakers are therefore reading the same year's data in very different ways depending on which measure they use.
The supplemental poverty measure put 13.1% of the U.S. population in poverty in 2025, above the 7.7% supplemental low recorded in 2021 and the 11.7% pre-pandemic low in 2019. The official 2025 poverty rate, by contrast, was the lowest on record.
The players
Donald Trump
The current President of the United States, whose administration sets federal economic and benefit policy that shapes how poverty is measured and reported.
Fox News
A cable and streaming news network that aired the preview and full interview, shaping how political economic claims reach viewers.
Miranda Devine
A New York Post columnist who conducted the video interview in which Trump delivered his final pre-midterm message on poverty.
FactCheck.org
A nonpartisan project that published an analysis of poverty measures, helping consumers judge competing statistical claims.
The details
The official poverty measure uses a fixed income threshold, while the supplemental measure adjusts for taxes, benefits and certain necessary expenses, so the two can diverge when household costs or government transfers shift. That gap is why the same year can show a record low on one measure and a rate above recent lows on the other. FactCheck.org published an analysis of these poverty measures last week, and the difference between them is central to how the figures are being cited.
Timeline
November 1, 2026: Fox News aired a sneak peek of the Trump interview.
November 2, 2026: The full interview with Miranda Devine was scheduled to air.
November 3, 2026: The midterm elections were scheduled to take place.
2025: The year the poverty measurements cited were recorded.
Money Landscape
The supplemental poverty measure, which the Census Bureau publishes alongside the official rate, has run above the official series because it counts costs such as taxes and necessary expenses that the official threshold ignores. The 2025 reading of 13.1% is measured against a 2021 low of 7.7% and a 2019 low of 11.7%, so it reflects a rise from the recent lows rather than a return to them.
Households whose budgets depend on the supplemental measure's treatment of taxes, benefits and necessary costs may see a different picture of their own standing than the official record low suggests. Anyone comparing poverty claims in the midterm debate should check which measure a figure uses before drawing conclusions about household finances.
The takeaway
The same 2025 data produces a record-low and a 13.1% poverty figure depending on the measure, so the measure name matters as much as the number. Before relying on a poverty statistic for a budget or voting decision, confirm which series it comes from.
Further reading
For context on how jobs and income shape these figures, explore the Employment section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Raw Story.
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