Market Sentiment May Stay Risk-Off Until November 2026

Investors should prepare for continued market volatility through mid-November as election and AI-trade concerns persist.

Updated on Oct. 23, 2026 in Investing

Bold flat-color editorial illustration featuring a solitary steel safety bollard, symbolizing market risk-off positioning and capital preservation. — Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett expects equity markets to maintain a defensive, risk-off posture through mid-November 2026 amid persistent election and AI uncertainty. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett projects that equity markets will remain in a defensive, risk-off state until mid-November 2026. This outlook stems from broader market anxieties tied to the artificial intelligence sector and the upcoming US midterm elections.

Why it matters

A risk-off sentiment often leads to increased market volatility as investors shift away from growth-oriented stocks in favor of safer assets. This shift can impact the performance of retirement portfolios and individual investment accounts as uncertainty persists through the election cycle.

Strategists identify a period of risk-off sentiment extending to mid-November 2026, marking a shift for investors compared to recent market cycles. The duration and depth of this caution remain subject to evolving investor concerns over the artificial intelligence trade and election outcomes.

The players

Michael Hartnett

Strategist at Bank of America Corp. who monitors global market trends and institutional sentiment.

Bank of America Corp.

A major financial institution providing banking and investment services to households and businesses.

The details

The risk-off classification describes a market environment where investors prioritize capital preservation over speculative growth. This sentiment often manifests as institutional selling in sectors viewed as overvalued or sensitive to policy shifts, such as AI-driven technology firms. Households should note that such periods can cause broader portfolio fluctuations until the anticipated mid-November timeframe when the current level of uncertainty may stabilize.

The risk-off market sentiment is projected to persist until mid-November 2026.

Money Landscape

Market caution often increases during midterm election years as investors look for clarity on future fiscal and regulatory policy. This current risk-off period reflects a broader historical trend of heightened volatility preceding the resolution of significant political events.

Investors may see higher volatility in equity-heavy accounts as market sentiment remains cautious through the midterm elections. Consider reviewing your long-term asset allocation with a qualified financial professional to ensure it still aligns with your personal risk tolerance during this period.

The takeaway

Market uncertainty driven by upcoming elections and the AI trade is currently influencing investment strategies. Investors may want to check their account diversification and consult a professional before making any significant changes to their long-term holdings.