U.S. Leading Economic Index Shows Improvement in September
The index signals more positive economic activity for households as forecasts for national GDP growth increase for 2026.
Updated on Oct. 22, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index reached 99.6 in September, marking a 0.6 percent increase over the previous six months. This improvement suggests more positive economic activity for U.S. households, as most index components showed growth.
Why it matters
The index tracks trends that often precede changes in the broader economy, helping to provide clarity on long-term outlooks for households. While indicators show improvement, analysts at The Conference Board also raised their GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
The Leading Economic Index rose 0.6 percent over the six months ending in September, reaching a level of 99.6. While eight of the ten index components improved, the consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9.
The players
The Conference Board
A research group that produces indexes and economic forecasts used to gauge national business conditions.
The details
The Leading Economic Index aggregates various indicators to provide a snapshot of prospective economic shifts. A recession warning only triggers when the annualized six-month decline exceeds 4.3 percent with broad weakness across more than half of the components. Currently, the index is not signaling such a decline, and The Conference Board has projected real GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027.
Timeline
The consumer confidence index reached an April 2014 level in September.
The July index increase was upwardly revised to 0.3 percent.
The Leading Economic Index declined 0.1 percent in August 2026.
The Leading Economic Index remained at 99.6 in September 2026.
Real GDP growth is forecasted to reach 2.0 percent in 2027.
Money Landscape
Current economic data remains well clear of the thresholds established by The Conference Board's recession warning system. This recent index shift supports a cautious but more optimistic outlook compared to prior periods of volatility.
Changes in economic indices reflect broad trends that can influence future interest rate environments and employment stability. You should speak with a financial professional about how shifts in GDP growth projections might impact your long-term savings and credit strategy.
The takeaway
While the index signals potential growth, the concurrent dip in consumer confidence shows that many households still feel the pressure of ongoing economic uncertainty. Monitor these index releases monthly to stay informed on the broader trend and discuss your budget with a qualified professional.
Further reading
For more background on how these metrics influence financial planning, visit our section on Economic Indicators.
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