Robinhood Prediction Markets Surge as Brokerage Cuts Jobs
The brokerage reports that its prediction market business is now growing faster than its crypto trading operations.
Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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Robinhood reported its prediction markets unit surpassed its crypto trading business in growth after trading 2.5 billion event contracts in October. The firm also announced it will cut 290 jobs despite the growth in betting on real-world outcomes.
Why it matters
The shift highlights a major trend in retail demand for event-based betting, with the prediction markets unit now generating a roughly $300 million annualized revenue run rate. This growth marks a strategic pivot for the brokerage as it balances headcount reductions with expanding its transaction-based fee income.
Robinhood generated $25 million in fees from its prediction markets unit in October alone, based on a fee of one penny per event contract. The unit now maintains an annualized revenue run rate of $300 million.
The players
Robinhood
A brokerage platform that provides retail investors with access to stock, crypto, and event contract trading services.
Rothera
A regulated trading venue that processes event contracts for retail brokerage platforms.
Kalshi
A regulated exchange that provides infrastructure for prediction market event contracts.
The details
Robinhood earns one penny in transaction fees for every event contract traded on its platform. The company routes this order flow across regulated venues including Kalshi, ForecastEX, Interactive Brokers, and Rothera. Rothera, a platform where 93% of volume stems from football contracts, has processed over 3.5 billion contracts since its May 2026 launch.
Timeline
March 2026: Robinhood launched event contracts.
May 2026: Rothera launched its processing platform.
September 8, 2026: Robinhood began routing contracts to OG.com.
October 2026: Robinhood reached 2.5 billion in contract trades.
Money Landscape
The shift toward prediction markets follows the documented industry-wide rise in retail demand for betting on real-world outcomes. This development marks a departure from traditional crypto trading dominance within the retail brokerage sector.
The growth of fee-based prediction contracts introduces a new, high-volume revenue stream for brokerage platforms that relies on small, incremental transaction costs. Household decision-makers should review their brokerage fee structures and consider if event-based trading aligns with their risk tolerance.
The takeaway
The rise of event-based contracts shows how retail platforms are successfully monetizing real-world speculation via small per-contract fees. If you engage in active trading, confirm your total fee structure for event contracts compared to traditional assets like stocks or crypto.
Further reading
For broader trends in market shifts, see our latest coverage on Economic Indicators.
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