Holiday Spending Expectations Dropped to $779
Consumers plan to spend less on average this holiday season compared to 2025 as budget pressures continue to influence shopping.
Updated on Oct. 13, 2026 in Spending
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Average holiday spending is expected to reach $779 in 2026, marking a slight decline from the $796 reported in 2025. This forecast comes as households weigh their desire to celebrate against ongoing budget constraints during the fourth quarter.
Why it matters
The shift in spending expectations reflects how households are adapting their seasonal budgets to manage current financial pressures. Understanding these trends can help families set realistic spending goals as the holiday season approaches.
A survey of 3,534 U.S. consumers indicates an average holiday budget of $779, down from $796 in 2025. More than one in five consumers still plan to spend over $1,000 this season.
The players
Circana
A market research firm that tracks consumer spending behavior and retail industry trends.
The details
Circana analyzed consumer intentions to determine how macroeconomic budget pressures are shaping seasonal outlays. While the average spend is projected to dip, total spending in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to fluctuate between a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase compared with the prior year. These figures highlight the cautious approach many households are taking toward discretionary holiday costs.
Timeline
2025 served as the comparison baseline for holiday spending.
2026 is the year of the holiday purchase intentions study.
Q4 2026 is the period for expected holiday spending.
Money Landscape
The 2026 Circana U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study tracks shifting consumer sentiment relative to historical seasonal spending. This data follows a period of budget sensitivity that has redefined how households approach major holiday outlays.
As you prepare for the end of the year, review your own holiday budget to see how it compares to these broader spending averages. If you are planning significant seasonal purchases, consult with a financial professional to ensure your spending remains aligned with your long-term financial goals.
The takeaway
While average planned holiday spending is slightly lower, a significant portion of households still intend to spend over $1,000. Review your current credit card statements and savings accounts now to determine a firm dollar limit for your holiday shopping before the peak season begins.
Further reading
For more on managing seasonal costs, see our guide to Spending.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Floordaily.
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Do you plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year due to current economic conditions?
