Texas Taxable Property Values Projected to Rise
Statewide taxable property values are expected to climb through 2028, impacting future assessments for Texas homeowners.
Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in Residential
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The Texas Comptroller has released new estimates projecting that statewide taxable property values will reach $4.33 trillion in 2026. This trend suggests continued growth in the state's tax base over the coming years.
Why it matters
Rising property values directly influence the long-term tax outlook for residents as housing affordability remains a significant pressure in Texas. These projections help the state calculate future budget needs while reflecting the current trajectory of the real estate market.
Taxable property values are projected to hit $4.33 trillion in 2026, marking a 5.07% increase over 2025 levels. Projections indicate further growth of 2.53% in 2027 and 5.66% in 2028, though specific impacts vary.
The players
Texas Comptroller
The state official responsible for estimating taxable property values and managing the state's financial projections.
The details
Texas policy currently incorporates a $140,000 school district homestead exemption to provide some relief to eligible residents. Additionally, a 20% appraisal cap is in place for certain non-homestead properties to mitigate the effect of rising market valuations. These mechanisms function as buffers, slowing the rate at which market-wide value increases translate directly into higher individual tax bills.
Timeline
2025 served as the base year for current property value comparisons.
Statewide taxable property values are projected to reach $4.33 trillion in 2026.
A 2.53% increase in taxable property value is anticipated for 2027.
A 5.66% increase in taxable property value is anticipated for 2028.
Money Landscape
These projections follow the current trajectory of Texas property markets amidst persistent affordability challenges. The estimates sit alongside existing tax policy measures, such as the $140,000 school district homestead exemption, which attempt to cushion the effect of rising valuations.
Homeowners should anticipate that these upward valuation trends may influence their future tax assessments. Reviewing your annual property tax statement against the $140,000 homestead exemption and consulting a tax professional can help you understand your specific local tax burden.
The takeaway
While statewide property values continue to trend upward, the impact on your specific household depends on local appraisal cycles and current exemptions. Keep track of your local appraisal district's notices to ensure you are receiving the benefit of the $140,000 school district homestead exemption.
Further reading
For more on managing homeownership costs, visit Residential.
Live Poll
Do you feel that rising property values are making housing less affordable for your household?
