Hawaii Forecast Predicted Job Losses Through 2026
State residents may face stagnant growth and weak income as the tourism sector faces headwinds.
Updated on Oct. 9, 2026 in Employment
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The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) released its economic forecast for the third quarter of 2026, projecting job losses and continued stagnation for the state. Households should prepare for a period of limited growth throughout the remainder of the year.
Why it matters
Economic stagnation is being driven by high energy costs and broader affordability issues in the state. This environment limits income growth for local workers and creates a challenging landscape for household financial planning.
U.S. visitors account for 80% of Hawaii visitor spending, which is a critical pillar of the state economy. The outlook for 2026 remains constrained by weak income growth and ongoing economic stagnation.
The players
UHERO
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization provides ongoing economic forecasting and policy analysis for the state.
The details
The state economy is struggling as tourists shorten the duration of their Hawaii vacations. Rising fuel costs and the recent impact of storms have further dampened tourism, which serves as the primary engine for local employment. Because such a significant share of visitor spending comes from U.S. tourists, any shift in their travel patterns or budgets directly threatens local payrolls and consumer activity.
Timeline
Q3 2026: UHERO released its economic forecast.
2026: The forecast anticipates a year of job losses.
2027: Economic recovery is expected to begin.
Money Landscape
This forecast indicates that Hawaii is currently diverging from the broader national economic trajectory. The state's recovery cycle has been tempered by specific local affordability pressures that distinguish this period from the growth observed elsewhere.
Households should evaluate their emergency savings and budget lines to prepare for a period of limited income growth through the end of 2026. For specific guidance on managing your finances during this period of economic uncertainty, consult a qualified financial professional.
The takeaway
The latest forecast suggests that the state economy will remain in a holding pattern until 2027. Residents may want to review their long-term budget commitments now, keeping in mind that the current period of weak growth and job losses is projected to persist through the year.
Further reading
For more on how state labor markets are trending, visit Hawaii Employment.
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