Small Business Optimism Dropped in September
The NFIB index fell below its long-term average as owners face increased uncertainty and persistent inflation.
Updated on Oct. 13, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 0.8 points to 97.9 in September, marking a dip below the 52-year historical average of 98.0. The survey indicates that small business owners are increasingly cautious regarding expansion and future economic conditions.
Why it matters
Rising uncertainty and concerns over inflation can lead small businesses to tighten budgets and delay expansion, which often reduces demand for commercial credit. These pressures may strain margins and impact the debt-service capacity of small firms across the country.
The optimism index dropped to 97.9 in September, falling just below the 52-year average of 98.0. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index climbed 1 point to reach 90, well above its long-term average of 68.
The players
National Federation of Independent Business
A trade association that represents small business owners and tracks economic sentiment through its monthly survey.
The details
The index decline reflects a significant drop in owner confidence, with only 6% of respondents expecting better business conditions. Additionally, just 7% of surveyed owners currently consider it a good time to expand. With 26% of owners identifying labor quality or availability as their primary hurdle, persistent labor and inflation costs continue to weigh on operational capacity.
Timeline
September 2026
Money Landscape
Current small business sentiment has dipped slightly below the 52-year historical average of 98.0. This decline suggests a cooling in expectations that breaks from previous growth trends recorded in the index.
If you own a small business, this trend suggests it is a prudent time to review your debt-service capacity and operating margins. Consult with a financial professional to discuss how shifting inflation and labor costs might affect your personal liability and business cash flow.
The takeaway
Small business owners are reporting record-high concerns regarding inflation compared to historical norms. Monitor your business or household debt-service capacity closely, and consider speaking with a financial advisor about potential impacts of inflation on your long-term planning.
Further reading
For broader trends on business health and borrowing, visit our Economic Indicators section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by ABA Banking Journal.
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