Historical Data Points to Potential Year-End Market Gains

Investors often see positive fourth-quarter performance when year-to-date gains track within historical norms.

Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Investing

Isometric editorial illustration of stone columns of varying heights, representing historical market performance trends. — Market strategists are evaluating potential year-end gains for the S&P 500, citing historical fourth-quarter performance trends for years with mid-range gains. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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The S&P 500 index has historically produced positive returns in the fourth quarter when year-to-date gains fall between 10% and 20%. With the index up 12.90% as of September 25, 2026, market strategists are looking toward potential gains heading into the final three months of the year.

Why it matters

Understanding historical market performance can help households set realistic expectations for their long-term portfolios. Because technology and communication stocks make up a large portion of the index, their performance often drives broader market trends.

The S&P 500 has seen positive returns in 18 out of 21 historical setups where year-to-date gains mirrored current levels, and it has finished higher in 12 of the last 13 years with an average fourth-quarter return of 5.4%.

The players

S&P 500

A market index representing 500 large companies traded on U.S. exchanges that serves as a common benchmark for stock market performance.

Nasdaq Composite

An index heavily weighted toward technology stocks that tracks the performance of thousands of companies.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

A stock market index tracking 30 prominent companies that is often used to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

The details

Technology and communication services account for 50% of the S&P 500, making these sectors significant drivers of index performance. Market strategists expect tech sector revenues to grow by 40% in the third quarter, which often serves as a precursor for end-of-year market momentum. Investors should note that historical patterns do not guarantee future results, as demonstrated by years like 2018 when the index fell 14.0% in the fourth quarter.

1950 marked the start of the historical performance period analyzed.
2018 was the year the S&P 500 saw a 14.0% fourth-quarter decline.
September 25, 2026 was the date the S&P 500 hit a 12.90% year-to-date gain.
Q4 2026 is the projected period for potential stock market performance.

Money Landscape

Current market conditions sit within the historical range for positive fourth-quarter performance, following a period where the S&P 500 has finished higher in 12 of the past 13 years. This outlook contrasts with the 2018 fourth-quarter decline, highlighting the potential for volatility despite favorable historical averages.

Investors should review their portfolio diversification to ensure they are not overly exposed to tech sector volatility. Consult with a qualified financial professional to determine if your current asset allocation still aligns with your long-term retirement and savings goals.

The takeaway

While historical data suggests a higher probability of gains during the fourth quarter under current conditions, market outcomes are never guaranteed. Review your quarterly statements and confirm your strategy remains appropriate for your risk tolerance with a qualified financial professional.