September Inflation Likely to Rise on Gas Prices

Economists project consumer prices will pick up speed this month as fuel costs weigh on household budgets.

Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Inflation

Bold flat-color editorial illustration in navy, cream, and red, featuring symbolic silhouettes of an oil pump and wheat stalks. — Economists at TD Securities project that U.S. consumer prices will climb by 0.54% in September, fueled by rising gasoline and food costs. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Economists at TD Securities forecast a 0.54% increase in the Headline Consumer Price Index for September 2026. This projection follows an August report that saw headline inflation rise by 0.40%.

Why it matters

Rising gasoline prices, which are expected to jump nearly 8% this month, and accelerating food costs are driving the anticipated increase in household expenses. These price shifts impact the overall cost of living and influence how families manage their monthly budgets.

Gasoline prices are expected to climb nearly 8% this month, significantly contributing to the projected 0.54% rise in headline inflation. This follows the August Consumer Price Index, which closed at an index value of 336.510.

The players

TD Securities

An investment banking firm that provides economic analysis and market forecasts used by households to anticipate price trends.

The details

The projected monthly increase in headline prices is driven largely by the expected 8% surge in gasoline costs, alongside anticipated gains in food prices. While the headline index is forecast to rise 0.54%, economists project core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—to grow by 0.20%, down from the 0.29% seen in August. The supercore CPI is also projected to increase by 0.23%, marking a moderation from the 0.51% increase observed in August.

August 2026 marked a 0.40% increase in the Headline Consumer Price Index.
September 2026 is the period for which the 0.54% Headline CPI rise is projected.

Money Landscape

This forecast provides a forward-looking update to the inflation trend established by the August index data. It contextualizes current price pressures within the broader volatility of the U.S. consumer price environment.

Higher gas and food costs may require adjustments to your monthly spending plan to accommodate a tighter household budget. Consider speaking with a financial professional about how these inflationary trends might affect your long-term savings and purchasing power.

The takeaway

While energy and food price shifts are creating short-term upward pressure on monthly expenses, these forecasts are subject to change based on actual market results. Monitor your monthly grocery and fuel receipts to see how these broader index movements align with your own household spending patterns.