Grocery Prices Have Projected to Rise Through Early 2027

Rising energy costs and new tariffs on imports are expected to push food prices higher for U.S. households.

Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Inflation

Isometric editorial illustration of a single wooden crate of corn on a concrete platform, representing agricultural supply chain economic analysis. — Grocery prices are projected to rise through early 2027, driven by higher energy costs and new tariffs affecting key agricultural supply chains. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Do you expect your grocery spending to increase over the next six months?

FMI - The Food Industry Association has projected an increase in grocery food price inflation starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. This trend is expected to continue through early 2027 as the supply chain absorbs rising costs.

Why it matters

Higher energy costs, exacerbated by conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are pressuring food supply chains that have already reached their capacity to limit price increases. These input costs typically take six to 12 months to reach retail grocery shelves, signaling a change in household budgeting needs.

While food-at-home inflation remained flat at 0% in the month preceding September 2026, the industry projects rising costs for the coming months. The U.S. Grocery Shopper Sentiment Index currently sits at 69, reflecting consumer awareness of the environment.

The players

FMI - The Food Industry Association

An industry group representing food retailers and wholesalers that monitors supply chain trends and retail pricing.

The details

Retail grocery prices often follow corn production costs and the producer price index for agricultural goods, with 75% of supermarket products containing corn. New U.S. tariffs on Canadian dairy, molasses, baking mixes, and frozen dough are also adding pressure to wholesale prices. Manufacturers and retailers now face thin margins, making it difficult to further absorb these rising operational and input costs.

September 17, 2026: FMI held a briefing on food price trends.
September 2026: The National Family Meals Month campaign occurred.
Q4 2026: An expected uptick in food price inflation begins.
Early 2027: Retail food prices are expected to continue rising.

Money Landscape

The projected rise in food prices follows a period of stability where food-at-home CPI remained flat. This pivot interrupts a brief pause in inflation and signals a shift back toward higher household spending requirements.

Households should prepare for potential price increases on dairy and baked goods as new import tariffs and supply chain costs filter into retail aisles. Review your monthly grocery budget to account for a likely uptick in spending by early 2027.

The takeaway

Food price inflation is projected to return in the coming months, reversing recent stability for many staple items. Consider reviewing your long-term household budget to accommodate these potential price adjustments.