Researcher Estimated Bitcoin Fair Value at $197,000
A new global money-supply model suggests the asset's current valuation remains below its calculated fair market equilibrium.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Investing
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On September 29, 2026, Bitwise researcher Andre Dragosch calculated the equilibrium fair value of Bitcoin to be $197,000. This analysis comes as Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 reached its lowest level since 2015.
Why it matters
Understanding Bitcoin's fair value models provides investors with a frame of reference for how the asset tracks against global money-supply conditions. This comparison highlights shifts in risk-adjusted asset returns as interest rates and market correlations fluctuate.
Researcher Andre Dragosch set Bitcoin's fair value at $197,000 using global money-supply metrics. The study also suggests a 5% portfolio exposure for risk-adjusted returns, or 13%-14% for those holding a 60/40 allocation.
The players
Andre Dragosch
A researcher at Bitwise who performs data analysis on cryptocurrency valuations and market trends.
Bitwise
A financial services firm that provides investment research and exposure products for digital assets.
The details
The model suggests a potential rotation out of AI-heavy equities and into cryptocurrencies could help close the gap between current prices and the calculated $197,000 equilibrium. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points recently, which can filter into broader mortgage and consumer borrowing costs. Projections indicate that if bond and equity stress continues, the S&P 500 could face a 10% to 20% correction, potentially triggering a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Timeline
2015: The last time Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 was as low as it is currently.
September 29, 2026: Andre Dragosch released the Bitcoin valuation analysis.
Money Landscape
The divergence between Bitcoin and traditional equity indexes marks a shift from recent cycles where crypto and stocks often moved in tandem. This trend follows the historical correlation between the two assets reaching its lowest point since 2015.
Investors considering digital assets should evaluate how their risk tolerance aligns with recommended portfolio exposures, such as the 5% suggested for general accounts. Please consult with a qualified financial professional to determine how volatile assets fit into your long-term retirement and savings strategy.
The takeaway
Bitcoin's current valuation remains distinct from its modelled equilibrium of $197,000 as market correlations shift. Monitor 10-year Treasury yield updates, as these figures often serve as a bellwether for tightening financial conditions across global equity and bond markets.
Further reading
For broader context on how assets behave in different economic environments, visit our guide on Investing.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Benzinga.
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